If we knew the answer to that Ron then we could all make a fortune on the Currency Markets!
What I have noticed though, over the years, is that the £ seems to lose against the Euro over the winter, but always bounces back when the tourist season starts. Of course it might be different this time.
Last year we were getting good rates 'cos the Euro was suffering from the Greek debt problem and the uncertainty of other EU countries that might also need a bail-out. To a certain extent those problems have diminished, thereby making the Euro stronger.
Meanwhile the UK has entered a Triple Dip recession, our Government are borrowing more than they said we would, our Prime Minister has thrown our entire economy into an unsettled state by indicating that we may well be leaving the EU in 5 years time, and most of the financial establishment now believe that it is not a matter of IF we lose our AAA rating, but WHEN. So the UK £ is falling on the worlds currency markets. Add that to the rising Euro and I think that we could easily see the £ / Euro rates falling a lot further.
Just my thoughts - and I know nothing about International Finance !!
But I do know that when the time comes for me to pay for the work that I am currently having done to my house it is going to cost me a lot more than I thought!